AI Progress Outpaces Expert Forecasts

As of September 2026, Anthropic reported revenues of roughly $100 billion, significantly exceeding expert forecasts. The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) conducted a study revealing that AI achieved milestones years ahead of expert predictions, including reaching gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad in July 2025.

Experts predicted that AI would match the performance of top virologists by 2030, while superforecasters estimated 2034. However, FRI claims this capability was likely realized as early as April 2025. The median forecast for the highest annual recurring revenue (ARR) of any AI company by the end of 2026 was set at $20 billion by experts, while superforecasters estimated $25 billion. The actual revenue reported by Anthropic in July 2026 was $65 billion, indicating a substantial underestimation.

The study also highlighted that experts assigned an average probability of 8.6% for AI achieving gold-medal performance, while superforecasters assigned only 2.3%. This trend of underestimating AI capabilities extends to predictions about solving Millennium Prize Problems, where experts forecasted a 10% chance by the end of 2027, compared to 5.4% from superforecasters.

The findings suggest that as AI continues to advance rapidly, practitioners may need to reassess their expectations and strategies in AI development and investment. This follows previous reports on Anthropic's performance and the evolving landscape of AI capabilities.