Daron Acemoglu Predicts 1.5% GDP Growth Over Decade Due to AI

On October 6, 2026, Microsoft published an article by Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu, predicting a mere 1.5% increase in GDP over the next decade attributable to AI advancements. Acemoglu estimates that a maximum of 5% of jobs may be replaced by AI technologies. He emphasizes that the pace of AI development is unpredictable and cites human nature as a significant bottleneck in this evolution. Acemoglu argues that simply increasing the size of AI models will not resolve these challenges, stating, "Bigger models won't fix that." He points out that the lack of easy-to-deploy applications that fundamentally alter production processes is a critical missing element in the current AI landscape. Furthermore, he asserts that AI systems designed to enhance human skills will outperform fully automated solutions in terms of productivity. Acemoglu also notes that achieving 99% accuracy in AI applications often falls short due to last-mile problems and the complexities of real user needs. This forecast diverges from previous optimistic projections about AI's economic impact and highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of AI's role in the workforce and economy.